Here (we) go again on (our) own. Goin' down the only road (we've) ever known
Now that we've had time to overreact to the Longhorns' faceplant in Fayetteville, how do we appropriately respond?
Here we go, again. The Longhorns have allowed a pre-season loss to kick us all in the collective groin. Texas isn’t good at letting its fans ride the wings of optimism for very long and it sure is great at giving opposing fanbases the best night of their lives. I’m sure Fayetteville is still hungover. For the 12th season in a row, the Longhorns won’t march into Dallas to face the Sooners without a blemish, and after what we saw in Arkansas, they’ll be lucky to get to the Cotton Bowl without a mortal wound. Let’s figure out where to go from here.
Sundays are for rest. Mondays are for overreactions like Texas won’t survive in the SEC or Sark needs a one way bus ticket out of the Hill Country. Tuesdays are for appropriate responses. All losses require a recalibration of expectations. Each defeat in sports causes a tremor that shakes a team’s players, coaches and fans to varying degrees. When you combine the stakes of each college football game with the expectations put on a program like Texas, then each loss feels like a violent convulsion. Especially when you lose on the road to a historic rival right before you join said rival’s conference. It’s not a great look. But, not all losses are created equal. A loss on the last play of the Big 12 championship shouldn’t cause the same amount of concern that a 19-point loss to Arkansas does. That being said, a loss to Arkansas in the second game of a new coaching staff’s tenure probably shouldn’t sound the alarm in the same way that a loss to Kansas or even a near-loss to Kansas does. I’ll attempt to write these articles after losses to help determine an appropriate defeat response for Longhorn fans. I am hopeful that I won’t have to write too many of these.
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With the Arkansas defeat, Texas suffered its worst loss since the Charlie Strong era - a fact many Tom Herman apologists like pointing out. I contend that the tight stranglehold with which Herman held his games didn’t allow for Herman teams to be blown out, in the same way they rarely blew anyone else out. Remember, Herman almost lost to Kansas in Austin and had to recover an onside kick against the Jayhawks to hold them off in another bout. Herman’s teams were set up to be the guy in the fight who keeps getting punched, yet continues to get back up, while Sark is a surgeon. He wants to be methodical and efficient. He might be coming to the realization that isn’t possible right now and Texas fans should, too. Like most Longhorn fans, I was giddy watching the Alabama offense carve up the Ohio State defense in the 2020 National Championship game. It was an offensive masterpiece on display and I was ready for it at Texas. I needed to see competent, methodical, crisp offensive game planning and execution after watching Tom Herman’s offenses for four years (which are the football equivalent of telling the same fart joke over and over, hoping it eventually lands). I ignored most of the naysayers who said that Sark wouldn’t have the same horses at Texas that he had at Alabama, even if I knew those Twitter keyboard warriors were right.
Rod Babers has a good point, that football and life are lived in the tension between what you want to be and what you need to be to survive. After watching Texas’ offensive struggles against the Razorbacks, it’s apparent that Sark will not have his ideal offense in Austin for year one. It will be up to him to come to terms with that and make do. Sarkisian could try to establish his ideal offensive identity in his first season at Texas, but his personnel deficiencies will probably lead to disappointment in that department. Sarkisian needs goodwill at Texas, from fans, power brokers and most importantly, recruits. He can’t run his picturesque offense because he doesn’t have the right players to do it, but if he doesn’t win early then he can’t get the recruits he needs. It’s a vicious cycle. Sarkisian needs to go for the low-hanging fruit, even if that’s at the cost of his offensive dream.
Though the receivers struggle to get open, the offensive struggles start with the offensive line. The Razorbacks defensive line repeatedly disrupted Card while rushing only three defensive linemen. Offensive line Coach Kyle Flood came from Alabama with Sark and prefers lineman closer in size to what he had in Tuscaloosa. Sixth year senior Denzel Okafor and left tackle Christian Jones both look the part, but have been liabilities thus far. Flood and Sarkisian haven’t shown a willingness to make a change toward offensive lineman like Andrej Karic and Hayden Conner who might not fit their ideal size profile, but could be better fits to achieve immediate cohesion. For Sarkisian’s read heavy, attacking offense to operate successfully, the quarterback has to have a clean pocket. After watching the Louisiana and Arkansas games, it’s obvious the pocket will be occupied by defenders on most plays. If the coaches won’t make changes along the offensive line, then they need to go with the quarterback who can best operate with the line he has. Sarkisian has already named Casey Thompson the starter against Rice, a first step in recognizing the veteran quarterback might give this current team a higher ceiling.
Hudson Card seems nervous in the pocket as it collapses, but doesn’t show a willingness to use his athleticism and run or check down. Card’s receivers had a few big drops in Fayetteville, but he also missed at least two sure touchdowns to Jordan Whittington and Xavier Worthy that would have changed the game. It’s clear the yards won’t come in big chunks, so the Texas offense has to be willing to grind out every yard it can and Card isn’t the quarterback to do that. Thompson has proven to be a much more willing runner than Card and seems much more confident. Thompson doesn’t have Card’s arm or Card’s ability to see the field, but the current team construction is making those Card strengths moot points. Sark needs to grab every win he can this season, however he can.
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The defensive performance is harder to explain and rationalize. Defensive Coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski seemed unprepared to make Razorback QB KJ Jefferson beat the Longhorns with his arm, but the defense mostly fell apart once the offense did them no favors. What’s most disappointing is that the names on the Longhorns defense are mostly familiar and that might be the problem. Too often fans expect breakouts from players because they know their names from seasons past or recruiting rankings. If players are overly familiar, it means they’ve probably overstayed their welcome. Many players on the Longhorn defense are good or above average players, especially on the defensive line. They all played below average on Saturday, but expecting an elite position group was due to the zero-sum game that comes from practice reports and an over-familiarity with certain players because they’ve been around too long. The defense can play better through a better game plan and injecting more nasty into the way they play, as Coach Pop would argue, but they are who they are at this point. Longhorn fans should adjust their expectations. This isn’t going to be a team that flips games through big plays and athleticism. If it ends up being a plus defense at the end of the season it will be because it got more support from the offense and its experience allowed it to bend, but not break.
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If we’re judging concern levels from 1-5 and 5 is Charlie losing to Kansas, I think fans should be at a two right now. A 1 on the concern scale would be Texas losing to Texas Tech in 2008, meaning nothing is fundamentally wrong, sometimes you just get beaten, then you don’t lose again for 14 months. Losing to Arkansas the way Texas did was alarming, but it did include a lot of bad breaks. What I found most alarming was it showed that Sark and staff can fall victim to the “We’re Texas” hubris and expect that by simply putting on the burnt orange and white you can line up and defeat an inferior opponent. If that were possible, Sarkisian wouldn’t be the coach and Texas wouldn’t be on its fourth leader in 10 years.
I believed if the Longhorns started the season 2-0, a special season was in store. If they started 1-1, it was going to be more like an 8-4 year. After Saturday, I’d take 8-4 with steady improvements and a lot of Bijan Robinson highlights. It’s early and Sarkisian has already shown the capacity for change, but it’s clear that maximizing this team’s win total won’t be easy. Your fate is usually written after your first year in Austin. And at some point, a first year Texas coach has to come in and maximize the roster he has, even if it’s not the roster he wants. If Sark doesn’t do it, we’ll be here again in a few years.
