The Prophet in the Wilderness
Sam Ehlinger looked to be the Longhorns chosen one, but he was stopped short of the Promised Land.
The Texas Longhorns have long reminded me of the Israelites from the Old Testament. Like the Israelites, they’re often the main character in the college football story, whether or not they deserve to be. Despite great promise, much of their history has been spent wandering in the wilderness, looking to the future toward a time when they’ll take their place on college football’s throne. When they have reigned supreme, they have done so with force, dominating the 1960’s and 2000’s.* Their dynasty in the 2000’s was defined by historic back-to-back quarterback play by Vince Young and Colt McCoy. But with one crushing hit to McCoy’s shoulder, the Longhorns were discarded back to the desert. Though the outside world might view the burnt orange and white as vagabonds still, miles and miles away from their land of milk and honey, they might, in fact, be closer than those away from Austin believe. If they are nearing greener pastures, it’s due in part to Sam Ehlinger bringing balance and stability to the quarterback position after nearly a decade of turmoil. But like Moses, Ehlinger won’t be the one to see the Longhorns enter the promised land.
The crowns that Young and McCoy wore were weighty ones and there seemed to be no successors capable of lifting them. On paper, Garrett Gilbert had all of the tools you could want in a quarterback, yet finished his Texas career being booed by thousands of fans at DKR. Case McCoy was Longhorn royalty in name, yet was too flawed to be a leading man**, and David Ash’s health cut his story short. Tyrone Swoopes’ and Jerrod Heard’s later position changes showed they were miscast to begin with. Finally, Shane Buechele followed in Gilbert’s footsteps by playing his best football up I-35 in a more suitable offense for his strengths. There were many reasons for their fall from grace, but the Longhorns could sum up their exile from football’s elite to quarterback play and the mismanagement of that position by Mack Brown and Charlie Strong. The above-mentioned quarterbacks were oftentimes thrust into the spotlight before they were ready or in offenses untailored to them (see Gilbert playing in Alabama’s pro-style offense Mack Brown forced him to switch into).
They were led astray further each year as the program lost its grip on the position, lacking direction and leadership. But, as Sam Ehlinger stood atop the Sugar Bowl podium following the Longhorns’ upset win over Georgia to end the 2018 season, it seemed as if he was that prophet who would finally lead Texas “back” to where their fans believe they belong, and the rest of college football hopes they’d be far from - glory. It looked to be something out of a 1990’s Disney movie. The hometown boy was raised as a burnt orange fanatic (you’ve all seen the video), who dreamed of following in Young’s and McCoy’s footsteps, who overcame unthinkable tragedy and became the Horns quarterback. My beloved mother was a freshman at Texas in 1969 and has seen many great Longhorn players, but rates Sam as her favorite of them all. She loves to couple in group texts many folks who would never find themselves in the same room together, and after Ehlinger’s Horns fought valiantly, but lost to the Sooners in 2017, she created one of those unlikely group texts where she told a number of fellow Horns “when Sam wins the Heisman, I am taking us all out for a five-star dinner.” I never found out who the faces were behind some of those mystery numbers because Mom’s guarantee never happened. But on that night, behind Ehlinger’s will and bravado, the story seemed written.
Ehlinger was Tim Tebow incarnate, somewhat flawed in mechanics, yet overflowing in intangibles with his brute strength and unflappable faith in himself and his team. Like Tebow, Ehlinger infuriated his biggest rivals. I think of him walking off the field after his first loss to the Sooners, reveling in jeers coming from the tide of crimson. He was loathed by two future #1 picks, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. Even though Ehlinger finished his career 1-4 against the hated Oklahoma Sooners, he inspired more hatred from their fans than any Texas quarterback ever. Ehlinger was unabashedly everything that opposing fans hate about Texas.
But, Longhorn fans know that the Disney movie didn’t come true, though Ehlinger finished 4-0 in bowl games, Texas left the bigger prizes of conference championships and the college football playoffs on the table. Tom Herman’s teams were as stubborn as he was, constantly coughing up leads and showing an inability to improvise or go off script. Ehlinger was the only person inside Herman’s program who seemed able to pull a rabbit out of a hat. His improbable near comeback against OU in 2020 at a socially distanced Red River Showdown was his Texas career summed up in game form, but his 2019 touchdown against Iowa State was a summation of his career at Texas in one play (watch it below if you forgot).*** Ehlinger’s team sleepwalked through an uninspired game-plan, the result came down to the wire and through sheer will he made something out of nothing and delivered the miracle, only for coaching or lack thereof to squander the lead in the closing seconds. Ehlinger committed to a fired coach in Charlie Strong and ended his Texas career with a dead man walking in Tom Herman, and Ehlinger’s Longhorns lost 18 games in his four years as their main man (see the first footnote about their losses in the 60’s and 00’s). The lasting image of Ehlinger might be him singing “The Eyes of Texas” alone following his final loss to Oklahoma and in that image, he goes from the protagonist in the hero’s journey to a tragic figure. Especially when you couple the Longhorns shortcomings with his unthinkable personal tragedies in losing his father, Ross, in middle school and more recently the loss of his younger brother and Longhorn teammate, Jake, just days after being drafted by the Colts. He is the prophet who led his lost tribe out of bondage and hardship, yet never owned real estate in the land of plenty. Or, he’s John the Baptist, whom many thought was the chosen one, but in reality, he was the road paver toward something potentially greater.
Steve Sarkisian now finds himself in a familiar place for Texas head coaches, in the middle of a quarterback competition. Now Casey Thompson and Hudson Card are auditioning for the role Ehlinger headlined in the past four years. I count this the eighth true “battle” Texas head coaches have faced since Marcel Dareus’ hit on Colt McCoy in the Rose Bowl. What differentiates this duel from the others is the time Thompson and Card have been afforded to be apprentices and learn under an expert. It was time that Ehlinger and those before him didn’t have. All of the other quarterbacks who briefly led the Longhorns offense were thrust into the role immediately after someone else failed on the job. None of them got to learn behind an established veteran. From 2014-2017, a new quarterback made his first start in each year and they were all true freshmen, except for Swoopes.
-First Starts or meaningful appearance at QB:
-Garrett Gilbert (Rose Bowl vs Alabama 2009): True Freshman
-Case McCoy (at UCLA 9/17/11): RS Freshman
-David Ash (vs OSU 10/15/11): Freshman
-Tyrone Swoopes (vs BYU 9/6/14): RS Freshman
-Jerrod Heard (vs Rice 9/12/15): Freshman
-Shane Buechele (vs Notre Dame 9/4/16): Freshman
-Sam Ehlinger (vs SJSU 9/9/17): Freshman
Ehlinger brought balance to a position group that desperately needed it. Thompson has been in the program for three full seasons and though Card has only been enrolled for one season, he still will have sat behind Ehlinger for a year and a half (he was an early enrollee). Sarkisian also has more talent at the position than most of the post-McCoy coaches have had. Below are the 24/7 composite rankings**** for the quarterbacks involved in each quarterback competition. Surprisingly, the Swoopes and Heard duo is the highest average rating, but we will chalk that up to poor evaluations by those who do the rankings. Thompson and Card rank second in the combined ratings found in the quarterback battles, proving to be a talent luxury that past coaches at Texas and in the Big 12 haven’t had.
-2011: Gilbert, Case McCoy, Ash (.9145)
-2012-13: McCoy, Ash (.8795)
-2014: Ash, Swoopes (.9026)
-2015: Swoopes, Heard (.9432)
-2016: Swoopes, Buechele (.9218)
-2017: Buechele, Ehlinger (.9348)
-2021: Casey Thompson, Hudson Card (.9371)
Early practice reports describe Thompson as a playmaking scrambler who throws hard, yet is prone to mistakes and needs to stay within the offense more, while Card is a gunslinger with the Lake Travis pedigree who possesses all the gifts a modern QB coach could want, but he’s green and could lack vocal leadership, ala David Ash. Still, the Longhorns have more talent at the position than many of their Big 12 counterparts who have long haunted Texas in this decade of discontent. Oklahoma State, TCU and Iowa State consistently have much lower composite rankings at Quarterback than the current Texas QB room. The average composite ranking of the Texas Tech quarterback room that featured future GOAT Patrick Mahomes, Heisman winner Baker Mayfield, and NFL Quarterback Davis Webb was a measly .8620. While those rankings are clearly another missed evaluation, but it goes to show how far quarterback development goes in this league. It’s not profound to say the Longhorns have talent and just need to develop said talent into future NFL veterans, but now they have a proven quarterback guru in Sarkisian who recently grew Mac Jones (.8815 composite ranking) into a Heisman finalist, leader of the greatest college offense ever and first round pick of Bill Belichick. Sarkisian might not have the arsenal of weapons at Texas that he had at Alabama (he most surely doesn’t), but the war chest isn’t empty. If Thompson or Card, along with Sarkisian, are the ones who lead the Longhorns back to the Big 12 championship podium or to greater heights afterwards, it’s because they were finally led to the border of the promised land by the one who came before them.
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Unlike the biblical prophets, Sam Ehlinger’s story isn’t finished. As I write this, Ehlinger made his NFL debut for the Indianapolis Colts. His first game played out in familiar fashion to Texas fans, as he threw an interception on his first drive only to later lead the Colts on a game winning touchdown drive. His playmaking ability, competitiveness and will were on full display. He treks on towards Canaan.
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*The Longhorns lost just 37 games from 1960-1970 and 2000-2009, with 22 of those losses coming in 65-67 and 00-03.
**Case McCoy was a great lab partner in Physics for Liberal Arts majors.
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****Composite rankings are the average across multiple recruiting services that rank high school prospects.