Hyperventilating
Week One makes college football fans crazy, let's sort out the truth and the lies as Texas heads to Tuscaloosa.
You won’t find a more unreliable narrator than the first week of college football season. It tells lies; it twists us into knots; it reinforces our most irrational fears; and fortifies whatever house of cards we’ve spent the offseason building - all while separating us further from the truth. Texas’ 37-10 victory over Rice this past weekend did all of those things within my fickle soul, especially after leading only 16-3 at the half.
JFK once spoke of Texas playing Rice for a reason - fans don’t expect it to be competitive. You should have seen my group texts last Saturday in which friends asked the unthinkable “what if we suck again?” I’ll admit, I was scared too. The moments where the offensive line struggled to block Owls that are going pro in something other than sports made me glance over at the nearest ledge at DKR. I didn’t walk over to it, but I glanced. Quinn Ewers' seven passes over 25 yards that didn’t fall into the arms of someone in a burnt orange jersey made me consider looking at what graduate degrees Georgia offers online. At the same time, our defensive line’s performance behind T’Vondre Sweat, Alfred Collins and newcomer Ethan Burke made me feel so invincible I might have tried to arm wrestle Mark Henry. Then there was Quinn Ewers’ third quarter and a revitalized Xavier Worthy, which reminded me why I was so optimistic this summer to begin with.
Week one hits the fan with theories from every angle. They come at you all at once and rob you of clarity. Is Coach Prime’s Colorado a looming dynasty because they beat last season’s runner-up TCU? Week one paints an incomplete picture. The season will most likely tell us that both teams are flawed. TCU is replacing a team that lost eight NFL draft picks and Colorado will struggle as their depth wears thin and they face a deep conference schedule. A team’s true nature is revealed as the season unfolds, not during week one. The truth becomes clearer as the weekends pass, slowly rendering the fading hopes of August and your preseason hypotheses mute. For the rare few fanbases, a season rolls along and surpasses our wildest dreams. Week one did a number on Longhorn fans and pundits, but history shows us we need to throw most of it out if we’re using it to draw conclusions about the season or showdown in Alabama, which is what all of you are here to read about. So, let’s look at some of the Longhorns’ first games of the past 10 years to prove why week one shouldn’t dictate our feelings about Tuscaloosa, despite the strong urge otherwise.
—
In 2013, Texas opened the season by beating New Mexico State 56-7 and broke the school record for offense. The next week it struggled to move the ball against BYU and was thrashed in Provo, spelling the beginning of the end for Mack Brown. 2016’s opener spawned college football’s most famous meme1, you know the one. “Texas is back" was true at the time, based on one week of evidence. The Longhorns had opened the season beating a Notre Dame team that was ranked 10th, had beaten Texas 38-3 the year before and was a few years removed from playing for a national championship. What that first week lied to us about was that Notre Dame and Texas were more like Civil War reenactors cosplaying as NCAA bluebloods. Texas went 5-7, lost to Kansas and fired Charlie Strong, while Notre Dame went an abysmal 4-8 and Louisiana’s favorite son Brian Kelly was forced to strip the program down to the studs and rebuild it for a second time. Then everyone’s favorite, in 2017, Texas lost to Maryland and the defense gave up 51 points in Austin. The result didn’t lie. It was a wet fart foreshadowing the Tom Herman era and how hard winning really was, or how hard Herman made it on his teams. Texas was mediocre at best that season. But in December, it had the defense to thank for a 7-6 record, the same defense that gave up 51 to Maryland in the first game. In 2018, Texas lost to Maryland again,2 but then went on to have the only very good season since 2009 and beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl after playing for a conference championship. 2019 and 2020 saw Texas smash inferior opponents in week one, only to play down to practically all of the rest of the competition.
Since Saturday, I’ve seen and heard several pundits say they had intended to pick Texas to upset Alabama, if it weren’t for Rice, but as history shows, week one shouldn’t drastically change how a fan or prognosticator was feeling about a season. But still, I take it all to Tuscaloosa with me in my carry-on bag: the doubt, the hope - all the feelings that are irrational and rational. I lay out everything below as my house and two kids' hair are full of lice, my brain is fueled by coffee and Mexican lagers and my heart is full of dread and excitement for what awaits Texas on Saturday in Alabama. Week one has flooded me and most Texas fans with thoughts that are difficult to discern whether they’re truths or lies. Let’s examine them further.
—
LIE - Quinn Ewers is the same player from last year.
When I saw Quinn Ewers jump off his back foot to launch a ball downfield while being hit by a Rice defensive lineman, I was shell-shocked. The ball missed a wide open Adonai Mitchell and I thought back to Ewers’ being body-slammed by Dallas Turner in last year’s Alabama loss. That play would turn last year's game into the second installment of “what if” when it comes to the Longhorns and Crimson Tide. Now, Ewers has been the subject of much of the national media’s ire for bad mechanics and sloppiness against Rice and some are pointing at him being the thing that’s preventing Texas from being “back.”
I brought up only the one play that I thought illustrated Ewers’ struggles last week because it was the height of my week one anxiety. But, if you look closer, you see that play was due to a blown protection and featured a missed pass interference call, and it occurred on a drive where Ewers contributed his fourth touchdown (between the ground and air) of the day. Ewers didn’t have a day like that all of last year, except Oklahoma. Yes, he missed all of his throws beyond 25+ yards, but he also commanded the offense brilliantly when running RPO plays. He and Xavier Worthy looked more comfortable together than they’ve ever been. Ewers was also more emotional than we’ve ever seen him, showing both joy and frustration at various times throughout the game. He even showed a little shimmy after his touchdown run, which Texas fans never saw last season. Lastly, I wonder if the tenor of last week’s result is entirely different had running back Jonthan Brooks reeled in an easy touchdown pass from Ewers that bounced off his hands in the second quarter?
TRUTH - Quinn Ewers and Steve Sarkisian’s relationship is the most important one at UT Austin right now.
In the past, Texas’ brass was often criticized for not being on the same page. That’s not the case anymore. There’s obvious alignment between the administration (President Jay Hartzell and BOR Chair Kevin Eltife with AD Chris Del Conte). The triumvirate is clearly supportive of the various coaches leading the athletic programs, Sarkisian most of all. Which leads me to surmise that Sark’s relationship with quarterback Quinn Ewers is now the most important one in Austin, as they will most likely define one another’s tenure at Texas.
At his press conference on Monday, Sarkisian was clearly agitated at his offense’s performance against Rice, but he was quick to point out that only two of the seven missed deep throws were attributable to Ewers and were rather the fault of protection, routes, or all of the above. So, either Sark is loyal to a fault and is willing to risk his job and seat’s temperature when he has two capable backups behind Quinn, or the same coach who mentored Matt Leinart, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones (and more) realizes he made the right decision at quarterback and is dancing with who brung him.
It’s also true that Sarkisian has an affinity for the deep ball that resembles obsession and Texas fans have seen that proclivity regardless of who was playing quarterback for the Longhorns. Throwing the deep ball has been where Ewers has fallen on his face so far and the reality is that Ewers should be a true sophomore in college, but he’s been thrust into leading college football’s biggest brand despite the fact that he missed his senior year of high school and didn’t have an actual freshman year of college. His development has been rushed along at each step, but fans and observers expect his talent and results to match one another already. Texas’ most prominent relationships have been defined by a coach and star adapting to one another’s strengths and putting aside one’s preferences - DKR and Earl, Mack and Vince Young, Mack and Colt McCoy.
Ewers reminds me of a child actor who found early success, then was thrust into leading roles before he was ready. We’re seeing him succeed and fail before our very eyes in ways that are usually reserved for behind closed doors or for smaller audiences. Sarkisian has gone all in on Ewers, pushing all his chips forward on #3 when he has a potentially great team. Sark has to ensure that he’s still allowing Ewers to do the things he is comfortable doing without rushing him along too fast and forcing failure. The average third down to gain last Saturday was nearly 3rd and 9, which shows that Sark’s not making things easy enough on Ewers or his offense as a whole (or that things were incredibly vanilla against Rice). Either way, Sark must put Ewers in position to do the things he’s best at right now, which are quick reads and RPO’s, because much more experienced quarterbacks than Ewers have gone into Tuscaloosa and come out destroyed by Nick Saban teams because they tried to do too much. I’ve learned as a parent you can’t rush developmental stages, but when Ewers hits his first deep shot it will feel like when you look over and your kid has pulled up the first time, all of it will snowball from there.
LIE - Beating Alabama is make or break for Sarkisian at Texas.
I have a fear that I’m sure many Texas fans share that if Sarkisian doesn’t get it done this weekend that he never will while in Austin. I felt optimistic about this game all summer after hyping myself up on practice reports and looking back at how a worse Texas team lost to a better Alabama team by one point last September. Many in the media have predicted that Texas’ final coronation would come in week two at Alabama, right before the Longhorns enter the SEC.
But, the reality is that Saban’s still a dominant 28-2 against his former assistants and even if he’s breaking in a new quarterback in Jalen Milroe3, it’s still Saban’s Alabama. Like the Brady and Belichick Patriots, no matter who else is there, you’re always going to see a certain standard. Georgia has won two national championships in a row and lost one game in the past two seasons (to Alabama). But, before they finally slayed their crimson dragon, Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart lost to his mentor four straight times, all in heartbreaking fashion. Those losses didn’t invalidate everything that was being built in Athens, no matter how bad they hurt at the time.
TRUTH - Beating Alabama would serve as validation on Sark’s tenure and the last two years.
Sarkisian has refused to compromise on his vision for the Texas program. Rather than grabbing low hanging fruit, he installed the offense he wanted to run, and he stuck with Pete Kwiatkowski after a dismal first season in Austin. He’s always recruited the players he wanted for the program, even if there were players available through the portal or high school ranks who would have given easier yesses. Texas has resembled a gambler in the past few years with the move to the SEC, and the painful installation of a complex offense that weeded out certain players Longhorn fans thought were “good.” Sark’s had a bricklayer approach to building a new culture as well. A win over Alabama would serve as validation for all the sacrifices players like Sam Ehlinger, DeMarvion Overshown, Roschon Johnson and Bijan Robinson made for Texas. All of it would be made well with a win over Alabama. It’s hyperbole maybe, but it’s Alabama. They’re the rock that other programs break themselves against. But, maybe Texas has enough stored up to do it.
LIE/TRUTH - It has to be this weekend.
I can talk myself into why and why not.
The walk in the desert started with a hurt shoulder and close loss to Alabama. Last season was like a sick joke with a narrow loss to Alabama after another hurt shoulder. For Texas to get over the hump, they have to beat Saban, right the injustice of 13 years ago and start a new chapter. Though this is probably wrong and sports don’t actually work like this, part of me thinks they do. Alabama are like Texas’ final boss in the video game who they have to get past. A win won’t mean Sarkisian’s work is done, but it will put the Longhorns on the doorstep of competing for playoffs and national championships again.
It’s as good a time as there will ever be. A worse Longhorns team lost by one point to a much better Alabama team that had Bryce Young, Jamhyr Gibbs and Will Anderson last year. This Texas squad is in year three of the same offensive and defensive scheme and has bookends of talented freshman and veteran leadership. Meanwhile, Alabama breaks in a new offense and quarterback and has multiple true freshmen starting at key positions such as left tackle and safety. Sarkisian has said the Longhorns look like the team he wanted to build, while Saban might be fighting against the dying light of his dynasty. He’s fought off Father Time before. 13 years ago, a Nick Saban team showed Texas how quick a flame could be extinguished. Now, the Longhorns should return the favor.
Prediction 1 - We’re going to have a safety count this time.
Prediction 2 - Texas 37 Alabama 19 (oh God, what have I done? Week one’s made me crazy.)4
I’m hyperventilating.
—
My dad and best friend are Texas Tech fans. They both went into the season thinking that they were going undefeated, now they’re worried they’ll only beat Tarleton State after losing to Wyoming. Week One did a number on them as it’s done to me so many times. Is “Everything runs through Lubbock” the new “Texas is back?”
The week stretch where Herman had lost to Maryland for the second time and then almost lost to Tulsa, while A&M briefly looked like it would defeat Clemson in College Station was my Garden of Gethsemane trial as a Texas fan. I told a friend we needed to hire Mark Richt and just win seven games for five years.
Milroe vs Ewers is a true sliding doors moment. Milroe was committed to Tom Herman and Texas and served as the 2021 classes bellcow for a moment. Then, Quinn Ewers (originally class of 2022) committed to Texas and Herman in the summer of 2020 after Mike Yurcich was hired as the Longhorns OC. Steve Sarkisian, offensive coordinator at Alabama then flipped Jalen Milroe to Tuscaloosa as Milroe felt spurned by Yurcich and Herman’s courting of Ewers and changing offense. But, after Herman’s 2020 team fell on its face, Ewers decommitted from Texas, flipped to Ohio State and reclassified to the 2021 class, where he spent four months before finally making his way to Austin with Sarkisian there and Herman gone. Now, Ewers and Milroe face off. What a wild ride this all is.
This is Texas’ first trip to Tuscaloosa since 1902, a game the good guys won 10-0. A good sign perhaps?
Love the article, I do think Texas wins, however your final score prediction wreaks of the burnt orange Kool aid from past references. Are you comparing Ewers to Danny from partridge family (you may need to ask your dad about that) that is an awesome take!
Taylor, just when you were back in the inheritance...’the road runs through Lubbock.’ Sadly, you’re right. This summer was the best of times for Tech fans; the loss to Wyoming is the worst of times.
However, Wreck ‘em, Melt the Ducks!