Restoring the benefit of the doubt
Good things are rarely expected from the Longhorns anymore. Here's what Sark can do to change that.
Picturing the great Tommy Nobis in Sooner Crimson and Cream should be nauseating to Longhorn fans. But, if Nobis were a high-schooler going through the recruiting process today, it could very well have happened. As hard as it is to believe, the 2021 version of Nobis’ recruitment would play out on Twitter. Gen Z Nobis would tweet something self-congratulatory along the lines of “Big news dropping tonight at 7PM.” His followers would be on edge, praying for a commitment to their school that they could hang over their rivals’ heads. A few minutes past 7:00, Nobis would release a “Top 2” of Texas and Oklahoma that included a picture with two Nobisi side by side - one variant a Longhorn, the other a Sooner. An all-out recruiting war between the two staffs would ensue and the fan base spurned at the altar would locate their nearest cliff. Today, it’s a recruitment the Longhorns might lose.
Back in 1962, Tommy Nobis (from Jefferson High School in San Antonio) did have his top two as Texas and Oklahoma. Nobis aspired to be a coach and believed that Darrell Royal or OU’s Bud Wilkinson would be the greatest options to learn from. In Dan Jenkins’ epic book Saturday’s America, Nobis is quoted: “So I went to visit OU, but know what? I got real mad hearin’ some of those guys talk bad about Texas. I guess the pride just came out in me.”
Nobis ultimately committed to Texas because of pride in his state, and even though the current class of recruits was just out of diapers when Vince Young ran for the roses, there’s no shortage of these players who grew up Longhorn fans.1 Texas just isn’t landing them. The seeds of doubt growing in these prospects are sprouting into live oaks, overshadowing and suffocating any fanhood. Steve Sarkisian hasn’t received the new coach bump his predecessors received when it came to recruiting and there’s not a new car smell emanating from the Texas football program right now, despite it not being Sarkisian’s fault.2 Like Michael Scott referencing America at Business School, Texas faces five Goliaths. Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson are all humming and recruiting the state of Texas well. It’s in those institutions’ best interest for Texas to keep stinking like a tire fire, and they will keep pouring on fuel until Sarkisian can correct the narrative. Though Sarkisian has the 10th ranked class, it already has 18 commitments and is looked stalling in key recruitments like Wide Receiver Brennen Thompson of Spearman and North Shore Corner Denver Harris. The lack of faith in Texas from blue chip recruits in the state of Texas illustrates a broader feeling directed towards Austin, the loss of the benefit of the doubt.
The media and fans are tired of believing Texas will be “back,” so much so that an opening game loss to Louisiana would shock nobody. Sark has not coached a game yet, but there’s a feeling of “I’ll believe it when I see it,” around the college football landscape. Those who previously believed in Texas feel they have been burned too many times by the Longhorn logo, coaching staff be damned. Recently Texas lost Beaumont West Brook four-star safety, Bryce Anderson, to Texas A&M due to “uncertainty” at Texas. Anderson was once considered a lock to end up in Sarkisian’s first full class and was supposedly a silent commitment at one point. In order for Texas to start winning recruits like Anderson, Texas needs to re-earn the benefit of the doubt. Here’s how Sarkisian can do it in his first season:
1) Texas needs to shoot on par with its talent.
When Texas lost out on local Lake Travis five-star wide receiver Garrett Wilson to Ohio State in 2019, Wilson provided a pretty damning soundbite on Texas. "They were close,” Wilson said of Texas. “In the end, I’ve watched a lot of people go to Texas with a ton of ability and maybe not achieve what I thought they could. I didn’t want to be one of those guys." Fair criticism or not, Texas is currently fighting back the noise that it’s a talent development hell.3 The thought that Texas is going to hurt your NFL draft prospects due to lack of development is going to drown out any notions of state pride and outweigh all the recruiting advantages that UT and Austin have to offer. Players and families want to know they’re going to play on winning teams where they’ll be developed into early NFL draft picks. It will be a while before Sarkisian can get players he is recruiting into the NFL draft. If he can turn Herman’s recruits into early draft picks, even better. But for now, Sarkisian needs to stem the tide of negativity with on-field results and for Texas to correct the narrative, it needs to play to where the talent is. 24/7 Sports just released its talent composite for 2021, a measure of recruiting rankings for entire rosters. The list accounts for attrition via the portal and incoming transfers and Texas was ranked 14th for 2021. So, let’s say Texas needs to finish the season ranked at or around 14th in the College Football Playoff rankings to match where its talent is viewed. Then head over to Las Vegas where sportsbooks have the Texas Over/Under win total set at eight for the 2021 season. That record wouldn’t be ideal in quieting the narrative. An eight-win season or worse would be seen as an under-achievement relative to UT’s talent and it probably means the Longhorns are out of the final top 25. If you look at polls between 2015-2019, there was an average of just three teams each season ranked in the top 25 College Football Playoff poll with four losses. Texas will play only one team ranked above it in the talent composite (OU, ranked 6th). The Longhorns must play up to the talent present on its own roster and can’t afford to continue to drop games to less talented teams. Which leads to the second thing that needs to happen.
2) Texas must win (most of) the games they’re supposed to win.
Texas is expected to lose to OU and Iowa State this year and nobody would blame them for doing so, but the four losses Vegas is predicting are due to the Longhorns past history in non-conference games (see Maryland) and its eternal struggle with less talented Big 12 teams like TCU. Texas faces a tough non-conference schedule with #20 Louisiana coming to town and going on the road to face once and future rival Arkansas.4 Billy Napier’s Ragin Cajuns upset Iowa State in the 2020 opener and many are predicting Louisiana to at least cover the 8.5 spread, if not take down the Longhorns in Austin. Podcaster Andy Staples has said on the Andy Staples Show that he’ll be impressed if Texas “beats Louisiana by one.” Though Texas fans will take going 1-0 (making Tom Herman proud) over the alternative, a slobber knocker with Louisiana or a 1-1 split after the first two games will do nothing to restore the benefit of the doubt. Louisiana is a good team that returns nearly all of its starters and Arkansas will be an incredibly tough environment for young Hudson Card to make his first road start, but the logos on the helmets mean Texas is expected to win both of those games. The Longhorns will face road environments in the Big 12 this year that will be anything but a “best luck in the future” send-off. Even still, recruits and fans are tired of seeing Texas struggle against Big 12 foes that Texas is expected to beat. It’s on Sarkisian to correct that narrative, even if this is the Longhorns’ last dance in this conference. Sarkisian needs to turn Lubbock, Stillwater, Manhattan, Fort Worth, Waco and Morgantown into Irish wakes as opposed to celebrations that mirror a St. Patrick’s Day parade.
3) A Longhorn player needs to become a household name.
The Longhorn interwebs are usually upset about something, but they’ve been especially filled with rage since July 1st when the NIL laws (players can capitalize monetarily on their name, image and likeness) went into effect. Nick Saban said that his starting quarterback Bryce Young has already inked $1 million dollars in NIL deals, despite Young having yet to make his first start. There’s the benefit of the doubt showing up again: people bet on Alabama’s quarterback becoming a star, whereas Texas players are not sure things. Texas fans have lamented the slow rollout of UT’s NIL plan and the prohibitive NIL laws in the State of Texas as compared to other states. But, more than anything else, Texas players are not receiving NIL deals on par with the likes of OU’s Spencer Rattler or Alabama’s Bryce Young because they’re not household names. Despite Sam Ehlinger’s popularity in and around Austin, his lack of games played on the national stage prevented him from becoming a ubiquitous name in college football. Sarkisian can’t will his way into the playoffs, but he would be served well by mimicking Mack Brown’s first year at Texas when Mack was faced with a similar obstacle.
Texas hasn’t had a player at the Heisman ceremony in New York since Colt McCoy in 2009 and badly needs one. Tom Herman lost three games last year that he probably wins if he gives the ball to Bijan Robinson. Long term, Robinson is the type of blue chipper that Texas needs in droves to compete for national championships with the Alabamas, Clemsons and Ohio States. But for now, Texas must showcase Robinson and make him a must-see highlight reel. When Mack Brown arrived in Austin, he paved the road for his future success by showcasing senior running back Ricky Williams all the way to a Heisman Trophy in 1998. Sarkisian has a proven track record of putting the ball in his playmaker’s hands and it’s in his long-term success to have a vested interest in getting Robinson to New York, the way Brown did with Williams (and what Fred Akers did with Earl Campbell).5
Strong and Herman once had the new car smell when they pulled into Austin. They picked up some early recruiting wins and the savior talk was loud, but their tenures never got better than their first offseason. Sarkisian’s first offseason has not been as rosy, but he has the chance to restore the benefit of the doubt with results on the field, where his predecessors lost it. Good players and good results were once expected out of Austin, but they’re not anymore. The last decade has burned too many fans, recruits and media members for very many believers to be left dying on the 40 Acres hill. If Sarkisian can restore the benefit of the doubt, he can begin landing the Gen Z versions of Nobis. They are out there, watching Sark’s program closely and looking for reasons to go to Texas.
See Tommy and James Brockermeyer - Longhorn royalty, Quinn Ewers, Garrett Wilson, DeMarvin Leal and Kelvin Banks, to name a few.
Texas A&M starting safety Leon O’Neal might run his 40 like he’s a defensive lineman, but he’s always been fast to criticize Texas. In an interview last week, O’Neal said the Longhorns “suck” until they find a coach. Sarkisian is being written off by some before he even takes the field.
No Texas offensive players have been drafted in the first round since Vince Young (2006) and there have been no defensive first rounders since 2015 (Malcom Brown).
I thought Texas going to the SEC was the death of rivalries and everything sacred about college football? Fayetteville seems excited to host their guests from Austin.
Before Ricky and Mack, Fred Akers and Earl Campbell won the Heisman Trophy in their first year together. Akers went away from Royal’s wishbone to the I-Formation and Earl rode a monster season to win UT’s first Heisman. Hopefully the trend continues.